In 2005 Turkish Foreign curate stated “ I believe that Turkey will go a full member of the EU in the terminal. Then those who have some vacillations about Turkey will hold wholly different positions ” .
In fact, “ Turkey ‘s orientation towards the establishments of the West day of the months from the creative activity of the Turkish Republic in 1923. Since so, committednesss to Westernization and modernisation have been cardinal subjects of Turkey ‘s province political orientation ” .Indeed, Turkish political elite considers that accession to the EU is a “ symbol for the successful completion of the longaˆ?term Ataturk revolution ”
On the other manus, from the European position and harmonizing to the last European advancement study ; Turkey has important lacks from a political, economic and even institutional position. And so, Turkey ‘s rank might non be really good perceived from the European angle.
In fact, even thought important political and economic alterations were made, Turkish accession to the EU is still at a “ slow gait ” . Some consider that this is due to the fact that Meleagris gallopavo ‘s rank will force the European boundary lines to “ some troubled part ” , and as a effect the EU will “ get direct contact with part of instability ” .
And so, if for some, “ Turkey will weaken the EU because non merely it does non belong to the EU geographically and identically but besides because it has many structural and institutional failings ” for others “ a literate and qualified Turkish population will do a positive impact on the EU ” .
Therefore, the inquiry here will be whether the Turkish rank will beef up or weaken the European Union. And my thesis is that Turkey ‘s rank could impact non merely the nature but besides the operation of the EU.
In order to reply this inquiry, focal points will be made on the broad intergovernmentalism theory. In fact this theory considers that “ members will cipher the advantages of expansion in footings of the cost and benefits of socioeconomics mutuality of assorted types ” . And so, broad intergovernmentalism seeks to analyse how can we “ deliverance and accommodate the state states chiefly by analysing province penchants non merely in economical but besides in geopolitical and ideological field ” .
Hence to accomplish this ‘Chapter I ‘ will near how Turkey ‘s rank will beef up the European Union ‘Chapter II ‘ will analyse how Turkey can weaken the EU and eventually ‘Chapter III ‘ will be a synthesis.
“ The European Union has ne’er been an sole nine. From the beginning of the integrating procedure, fellow European states were welcome to use for rank. However, as the Union was intensifying its integrating and turning in size, the inquiry of where and when to halt the expansion became controversial ” .
In fact, with Turkey ‘s possibility to fall in the EU many arguments seems to be emerging. Therefore, it seems necessary to the EU to “ a democratic administration system to guarantee that a Union of 28 or 30 or more states can work efficaciously – non go a formula for stagnancy or even implosion.
For the accession to be possible Turkey has besides to keep its advancement in both economic and political because “ arrested development would be fatal to its end of EU rank ” .
2.1- Turkey Weakening the EU:
Many European leaders have argued that the European individuality will be lost if Turkey joined the European Union. For case, former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl one time said that a Muslim state like Turkey does non belong in Europe. In add-on, the former President of France, Valery Giscard d’Estaing stated in an interview in Le Monde in 2002 that “ a future inclusion of Turkey in the Union would be the terminal of Europe since Turkey is non a European state. ”
In fact, from the brotherhood ‘s position the accession of a state is “ rational ” if it provides security to the brotherhood and raises the economical benefit. However since Turkey has a little economic system and has limited trade volume, many assume that it will hold “ fringy consequence on growing in the current EU ” . As the Numberss that were published refering this topic shows Turkey is considered to hold the poorest income in the part. And so, “ Turkish accession ( aˆ¦ ) would increase regional economic disparities in the hypertrophied EU by an estimated 9 % , stand foring a major challenge for coherence policy ” .
In add-on to that, Turkey ‘s human ecology is besides considered as a load to the EU. In fact, Turkey ‘s population estimated at 73 million is considered one of the largest populations in Europe. And so, with the accession of Turkey there is a hazard that migration from Turkey to other European states raises. Furthermore, Turkey ‘s human ecology might besides impact negatively the determination devising in the European Union. As Laffan and Stubb note “ there are frights that Turkey as one of the largest provinces in the EU could deteriorate non merely the vote dealingss between the members provinces but besides the whole political and institutional European architecture ” .
And so, with a population predicted to increase to 83 million by 2014, Turkey will be “ the most powerful state in the vote system ” . In fact, if Turkey joined the EU, Turkey will hold right to 96 members in the European parliament and by this she will be fall ining the “ nine of the large states ” such as France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom. So with this sharing system Turkey will hold a proportion of 12, 8 % of ballots. This is why smaller states such as Holland are opposed to this expansion. Actually, they refuse the thought that Turkey, a new coming state will play such an of import function in the determination devising of the brotherhood whereas their function is being reduced with every expansion. In fact, with Turkey ‘s adhesion, and a European brotherhood with 28 states, Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Turkey will be make up one’s minding the hereafter of the 24 others.
Turkish human ecology is besides considered a job because the Turkish population in chiefly Muslim. In fact, some authorities insisted to advert the “ Christian nature of the EU ” in the bill of exchange of the European fundamental law in 2003 and this shows to what extent some might decline the thought that states without “ Christian tradition ” become members of the EU.
Furthermore, “ recent polls show that the bulk of Europeans now oppose further expansion of the European Union, and that Turkey receives peculiarly low degrees of support in France, and across Europe more loosely, chiefly because it is perceived as sacredly different ” .
Furthermore, “ Turkish accession means that the EU in world swaps the instability jobs of a stable neighbour with terrible instability jobs of Iran Iraq and Syria ” . In fact, “ Turkey ‘s troubles in deriving EU rank might be better understood as practical geopolitical jobs associated with expansion ” . And so, being caught between the Middle East and the Caucasus “ would do the hypertrophied EU more open and vulnerable ” .
Finally, Turkey ‘s relation with its adjacent European states does non convey any aid and so “ Turkey faces two local challengers ( Greece and Cyprus ) in the EU who hold veto power over Turkish accession ” .
2.2- Turkey Strengthening the Europium:
In resistance, Turkey might positively act upon the European Union.
First of all, and from an economical position, Turkey is considered as one of the largest market in the universe. “ It is the 7th major import spouse with the EU and the 5th major export spouse ” . As Avery notes “ its turning economic system and immature labour force would convey benefits for the individual market ” . And so, since EU will necessitate in the hereafter immature and inexpensive labour, Turkey ‘s accession might so be helpful for the hereafter development and the economic growing of the European Union.
Besides, Turkey is a big state with a big human ecology, and so its possible as a market of good is of import. In fact, as the statistics shows Meleagris gallopavo is the 7th major of import spouse of the EU and the 5th major import spouse.
In add-on, and since the building of the oil grapevine Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Turkey ‘s function as “ a cardinal theodolite state for energy supplies ” is besides imperative to the EU.
And so, “ It can be argued that in economic footings Turkey non merely is of import to the EU both for its impact on internal and external economic dealingss but besides that it will beef up the EU ‘s economic capablenesss ” .
Second, “ Admission of Turkey to the European Union would supply undeniable cogent evidence that Europe is non a closed “ Christian Club ” “ . In fact, with Turkey ‘s accession the brotherhood will look as a more tolerant society. And so, with this integrating “ Europe could play an incomputable function in future dealingss between the “ West ” and the Islamic universe. This can besides assist advancing the “ soft power ” of the European Union and reenforcing it.
Furthermore, due to her geo- strategic place “ Turkey would add new dimensions to the Union ‘s foreign policy attempts in such vitally of import parts as the Middle East, the Mediterranean, Central Asia and South Caucasus ” .And so ; this will assist the brotherhood addition an of import function in those parts. For case, refering the Middle East part, Turkey ‘s rank would be really helpful to the EU. In fact, the good dealingss that Turkey entertains with both Israeli and Palestinians will assist increasing the brotherhood ‘s weight and this “ could be put to good usage in common attempts towards peacemaking and stabilisation in this strategically critical part ” .
Furthermore, refering the European Security and defence policy “ Turkey ‘s considerable military capablenesss and the state ‘s possible as a forward base would be of import and much-needed assets. In fact, Turkey has participated in the work of the convention to the hereafter of Europe and brought her ain vision to better the European security and defence policy so that she can be able to confront today ‘s challenges.
In add-on, “ As one of the strongest NATO spouses, with a clear orientation toward ESDP, Turkey would be of great value for the European defence system ” .
Finally, declining the integrating of Turkey, might impact the credibleness of the EU. In fact, as Smith notes “ The sense of duty toward the campaigner states, the sense of shared European individuality, the strategic jussive moods favoring large knock expansion and the fact that the EU could non hold backed down from its promises without a serious loss of credibleness and legitimacy all helped to prolong the impulse ” .
“ Turkey has two psyches: one layman and European, the other Asiatic and Muslim ” . And this is where the whole job stands.
On one manus, Turkey tend to fall in the EU and resemble to the European states and on the other inquiries about whether Turkey is European or whether Turkey should fall in the EU are still capable of arguments.
In fact, another job needs to be raised here: The Turkish public sentiment. Actually, “ The Turkish populace is going progressively resentful towards the EU because of a perceptual experience that, while the state is negociating rank, the EU itself is still debating whether or non it should be allowed in ” .
Even thought Turkey has made many reforms in order to achieve the European “ standard ” , some alterations still needs to be done.
First of all and from a political position, Turkey has ratified two UN pacts the first refering civil and political rights and the 2nd societal and economic rights but this is still non sufficient. The European Commission still argues that “ political, civil, economic, societal and cultural rights are non to the full guaranteed and that more attempts are needed to heighten the coherency of legal commissariats and pattern ” .
From an economic point of position “ Turkey ‘s recent economic reforms have shown it capable of take downing rising prices and advancing endeavor growing while enduring two recent, regional economic dazes ” .
And so, if broad intergovernamentalists, such as Moravcsik, perceives “ economic groups as the cardinal drive force for integrating ” so with the alterations that were made Turkey can be perceived as capable of being member of the EU since both Turkey and the EU will profit from this integrating. In fact and as we said before, Turkey is an of import market of good for the EU and can supply the immature labour force that the brotherhood needs which makes it eligible to be a member.
From a spiritual point of position, it ‘s true that Turkey is a large state with a population chiefly Muslim, but allow ‘s non bury that “ 12 million Muslims unrecorded already in Europe and many more are likely to do their manner to Europe ” . In add-on, Albania and Bosnia-Herzegovina are besides Muslim states and possible campaigner to the EU and no 1 is objecting their possible campaigning.
Finally, “ a “ No ” to Turkey-now or in the really near future-would have highly sedate and negative effects non merely for the nearby part but besides for European security involvements ” .
And so, the thesis that Turkey ‘s rank could impact non merely the nature but besides the operation of the EU is proven. In fact, even if the statements that proves that Turkey will beef up the EU seems to be more convincing from my position, the thought that Turkey will convey alterations to the nature of the EU seems to be a fact whatever 1 ‘s strong belief is. However, the alterations can be seen otherwise harmonizing to one ‘s position. And so, being convinced that Turkey will weaken the EU, so the alterations will be seen negatively and frailty versa.
“ In his recent book, The Limits of Europe, EU Commissioner Frits Bolkestein warns against European overstretch. Turkish accession, he argues, would cut down Europe to a glorified imposts brotherhood, and create hazards for the European undertaking.
What Bolkestein meant, as he made clear in September 2004, was that Turkey ‘s big population might good make a more Muslim Europe, either by intra-European migration or by EU voting mechanisms weighted by population size ( aˆ¦ ) The advantages for an enlarged Europe, he argues, prevarication in exporting stableness but at the hazard of importing instability ” .
However, And based on the statements showed below, we can state that the conditions that are presented as “ weakening the EU ” are non really converting any longer. In fact, since the expansion in 2004, things have changed. And so, if the European Union would wish to turn out today, that she ‘s a united international histrion, and if the European Union would wish to turn out that holding one intent might convey together histrions no affair how different they are, but willing to work for that intent, so the EU should accept Turkish rank.
But what about the option presented by the Gallic president Nicolas Sarkozy? Will turkey go a privileged spouse alternatively of a full member? And what about the possibility to do some alterations for cut downing Turkey ‘s influence before Turkey ‘s entry to the EU, as it was the instance with the Nice Treaty before the eastern expansion?